Metaverse: The "Revolution" that has yet to be fulfille

The sense of failure surrounding the metaverse stems from the disproportionate high expectations created by visionary but poorly grounded announcements. And the higher the expectation, the greater the disappointment. While companies and influencers talked about an immersive, interconnected future, technological limitations in both hardware and software were underestimated. The metaverse hasn’t ended, but it was simply promised much too soon.

In October 2021, Mark Zuckerberg announced an ambitious transformation: his company, Facebook, would be renamed Meta, and reposition itself as a metaverse company, not just a social media platform. A few months later, Bill Gates speculated that in two or three years, "most virtual meetings would no longer take place in a 2D grid — like the one from cameras — but would happen in the metaverse, a three-dimensional space with digital avatars." Meanwhile, other tech giants like Google and Apple also made less visible but significant investments in this technology. With all the backing from big techs, it seemed to be a consensus at that time that the metaverse would be the new technological revolution.

Now, three years later, the scenario is different. The investments that companies had planned have been reduced or redirected, many teams have been downsized or completely disbanded, and as we know, virtual meetings are still predominantly held with conventional camera images. Has the metaverse become a massive failure? Just another technology for the "museum of big innovations"?

Although it hasn't developed as expected, the metaverse is alive, but it faces concrete technical challenges to take off. Additionally, shortly after the initial excitement, new artificial intelligence technologies began dominating the attention of companies and tech news. Outshone, the metaverse lost popularity.

However, the primary explanation for the sense of failure surrounding the metaverse lies in the disproportionate high expectations created by visionary but poorly grounded announcements. And, the higher the expectation, the greater the disappointment. While companies and influencers spoke about an immersive and interconnected future, the technological limitations in both hardware and software were underestimated.

Hardware Challenges

Regarding physical equipment, the most well-known devices for accessing the metaverse are head-mounted displays (HMDs), more commonly known as Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) headsets. Despite recent advances in product launches, they still present many limitations. To date, no equipment exists that is truly as simple, light, and comfortable as conventional glasses.

Moreover, motion tracking systems allow for innovative forms of interaction with the virtual environment, but these interactions are still not intuitive or adequately standardized to ensure smooth experiences for non-expert users. Interaction in virtual or augmented reality environments is still far from the ease and precision of a mouse or touchscreens.

Another aggravating factor is that many people suffer from side effects like eye strain, nausea, drowsiness, and dizziness. Known as "cybersickness," discomfort is caused by the discrepancy between what a person sees and how their body moves in physical space. Recently, this led users to return their Apple devices launched in early 2024.

Therefore, it is unreasonable to imagine that anyone today would be willing to spend hours wearing Virtual Reality glasses in corporate meetings in the metaverse. Considerable technological evolution is still needed to allow the widespread and prolonged use of these devices.

Software Limitations

As for the programs and tools controlling these devices, the biggest problem is the lack of standardization. No platform for the metaverse has emerged as a de facto standard.

For comparison, in the 1990s, the World Wide Web revolutionized global communication by relying on universal standards, such as the HTTP protocol (which structures data traffic on the internet) and the HTML language (used to create web pages). This allowed anyone who put a page online following these standards to know it could be accessed by anyone on any web browser.

In contrast, the metaverse is a fragmented ecosystem with countless different and isolated platforms. Therefore, when creating an avatar or virtual object on one platform, it can only be accessed by users on the same platform and cannot be transferred to another. Thus, without standardization, the metaverse has little chance of following the success path of the Web.

Additionally, there is still no "killer application" in the metaverse, that is, a program so essential or desirable that it brings unquestionable benefits capable of driving mass adoption of the technology. The virtual meetings imagined by Gates, for example, do not offer such clear benefits that would justify replacing current video conferencing programs with 3D avatars in a virtual environment.

The Metaverse Is Already Here

Although it hasn't reached the heights initially envisioned, it is a mistake to think that almost no one is using the metaverse. On the contrary, it already has a significant impact in the entertainment sector, especially in video games. There are over 500 million active users monthly on platforms like Roblox, Fortnite, and Minecraft. They can be considered a kind of metaverse for gaming, mainly reaching the younger audience.

These tools are part of an industry that generates around $200 billion annually. Many have recently integrated into the cryptocurrency market, giving a new shape and boost to the digital economy. They have also recently faced a complaint from the European Consumer Rights group, accusing companies of using "manipulative spending tactics" through virtual currencies in games, where children are particularly vulnerable.

And even without all the initial enthusiasm, technological advancements in the metaverse continue. One example is the company NVIDIA, which grew significantly due to AI technologies but also invests in initiatives like Omniverse. This platform facilitates the creation of virtual models of objects, systems, or places, known as digital twins. For example, a factory can have a digital twin that replicates each machine and production flow, allowing monitoring, predicting failures, and testing improvements without interfering with the real operation.

The Omniverse system uses OpenUSD (Universal Scene Description), an open-source data format originally created by Pixar Animation Studios to manage complex scenes for animation and visual effects. In the metaverse context, it offers a standard that facilitates data integration across platforms and tools. This may be the beginning of the necessary standardization for the metaverse, omniverse, or whatever name it may take in the future.

Therefore, I believe that the metaverse hasn’t ended but was simply promised too early. Until then, the expectation remains that the younger generation, already accustomed to the virtual universe of games, may eventually revive the popularity and utility of the metaverse in the future.

Source: Gizmodo

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